Unity: First and foremost is unity among the team. If they do not pull each others’ legs and, instead, concentrate on playing together as a team, Pakistan players are always a treat to watch. This necessitates a captain who has the backing of the players as well as the cricket board. On the other hand if the team is divided and is not gelling together under a captain whom they do not trust or are not fond of, they can not give hundred percent on the field. After an unnecessary drama of uncertainty over the captaincy by the PCB, Shahid Afridi was eventually confirmed as the captain for the World Cup. Misbah was a close contender but thankfully he is backing Afridi unconditionally and performing superbly. The rest of the team and the team management, too, have no issues with Afridi. So the odds are in favor of Pakistan as they are united behind a well-trusted and respected captain.
We can safely give 8 out of 10 points here.
Captaincy: Pakistan players need a captain who can inspire them. The players look up to their captain in crisis. Afridi, as it is a well known fact, is temperamental and inconsistent. He seldom inspires his team as far as performance is concerned. But when he does so, he wins it for them, as we have witnessed in World T20 in England in 2009. We do not essentially need a tactically astute captain, but one who can rally his players along. And Afridi can do that. He is batting at a better average than his career average over the last two years but his bowling has dipped considerably which is a worry. If he could somehow lift his game for the World Cup and perform consistently, Pakistan will be well served indeed.
We can assign 6 out of 10 here.
Motivation: Third factor for Pakistan is the motivation. They are most dangerous when cornered or written off. The team has been shattered mentally and emotionally due to continuous off-field distractions for long enough to feel cornered and unduly persecuted. Their captain has been further pestered by his own board for no apparent reason so he too has reasons to prove himself. The coach, Waqar Younis, has bitter World Cup memories of his own. He was injured in 1992 while in 1996 he was partly responsible for his team’s exit in the quarterfinal stage when he gave away a few extra runs to India. In 1999, he was agonizingly kept out of the playing eleven by Wasim Akram, while 2003 WC was another one to forget as he captained the team in a first round exit. He would surely like to break the jinx. Above all Pakistanis as a nation want to win this cup as they feel hard done by the ICC after being deprived of the right to host the World Cup. At a time when sub-continent is brimming with joy and engulfed in WC fever, Pakistan feels painfully marginalized. A win would definitely mean retribution and satisfaction.
Here 10 out of 10 fore sure!
Planning: It is not a strong characteristic you can associate with Pakistani management. Off course they make plans and try to execute them but often they forget to put together a plan ‘B’ in case some thing goes wrong. The management, one hopes, is experienced and professional enough to guide the team by doing sound planning for each opposing player and team according to the conditions.
6.5 out of 10
Luck factor: The luck factor as always may play a role. An interesting fact is presence of Intikhab Alam as the manager of the contingent. He is known as a lucky charm or mascot for the team in many circles. This is because he was the manager when Pakistan won the World Cup in 1992 in Australia while again during his tenure as coach Pakistan lifted the World T20 trophy in England. But on a serious note, if luck favors Pakistan and they reach the knock out stage with a momentum, they will be difficult to beat unless they implode themselves.
As you have 50-50 chance to be either lucky or unlucky, it can be anything between 0 and 10. I play safe and give them 5 marks.
Batting strength: Contrary to the recent World Cups, this time Pakistan’s batting looks stronger than their bowling. The batting, though the stronger point, still cannot match the batting line-ups of the last two World Cups. This clearly indicates why Pakistan is not among the favorites. The batting revolves around two experienced veterans in Younis Khan and Misbah-ul-Haq. While the latter is enjoying the form of his life, the former needs to step up for the sake of his team. Otherwise young Asad Shafiq is there to be tried. The job of these two is to hold the innings together and prevent the infamous ‘Pakistani’ collapse. The opening looks settled after a long time as both Hafeez and young prodigy Ahmed Shehzad scored a century each in the last series. The real fire-power and strength of Pakistan lies in the lower middle order where Afridi, Umar Akmal and Abdul Razzaq, if provided a good base, can maul any attack and change the course of the match. It will be interesting to see where Kamran Akmal bats as he is also a power-hitter. Another advantage is that the tail also is not mug with the bat.
So the points I will assign here would be 7 out of 10.
Bowling Strength: Pakistan is hurt badly by the loss of Asif and Amir. They cannot be replaced easily but Pakistan has enough talent in bowling department to unearth a few good gems sooner or later. The real problem at the moment is the pace bowling. Neither Umar Gul nor Shoaib Akhtar is in good form. Pakistan needs both to fire, one at the start and the other, Gul, at the death overs. Shoaib’s pace and Gul’s reverse swing can help Pakistan immensely if they could rediscover some form. It seems Abdul Razzaq will open the attack and will bowl 5 or 6 overs before Gul takes over. It will be tough to drop Wahab who is bowling best of the lot and I think, he should be given the nod ahead of either Shoaib or Gul, at least initially. If Afridi wants to be brave like Imran Khan, he can throw Junaid Khan into the deep end as he will be a surprise package for every opposition. He can swing the ball at pace and we might well have found a new gem in him. Pakistan has two good spinners in Saeed Ajmal and Abdur Rehman apart from Afridi himself and then they have part-time spin of Hafeez and Shehzad. Most likely they will go with Abdur Rehman just to add variety to the attack as Hafeez is there as an off-spinner but it would be a defensive move. Ajmal is an attacking bowler and on favorable attacks he can win matches for Pakistan by taking crucial wickets in the middle overs. If any of the seamer goes for runs or the track has life, Younis can be called upon to turn his arm over for a few overs. We have a balanced bowling attack but definitely not a threatening one so 6.5 out of 10 points would be enough.
Fielding: We do not take pride in fielding. This part of the game has traditionally been Pakistan’s weakest link. The inclusion of some new faces had improved Pakistan’s field significantly. Umar Akmal, Shehzad, Hafeez, Wahab and Afridi are good fielders. Younis and Misbah are very much reliable too. Stopping sharp singles, valiant dives to prevent boundaries and direct hits to affect run outs are the hall marks of a good fielding unit but if they do not give too many extra runs in the field, the management would still be happy. The weakest link in the fielding is probably the older Akmal, Kamran. Pakistan will dearly wish that he forgets his recent woes behind the stump and does not drop too many catches.
Here 6 out of 10 at the most.
Tournament Format: The format this time around ensures that no minnow can cross over to the next stage unless they beat at least two of the test sides. It has been done to keep the masses and sponsors interested in the tournament as far as possible. So Pakistan should qualify for the quarter-finals.
7 out of 10.
Pitch factor: The pitches suit the host nations as well as Pakistan team. Barring repetition of odd episodes, like the Champions Trophy in India or the 2007 world Cup in West Indies where Pakistan had to play on seaming wickets, the tracks will make Pakistan feel at home. The pitches in Sri Lanka will assist swing bowling and that actually can help Pakistan defend mediocre totals.
8 out of 10.
If we count the total marks, they come out to be 70 out of 100.
So Pakistan has 70% chance of winning as compared to 30% chance for losing i.e. odds are roughly 3.5 to 1 for a win. But all that matters is performance on the ground. Nothing can help them if they do not help themselves.
P.S: One cannot forget the Prayers. Prayers were instrumental in the World Cup triumphs of 1992 and 2007. So now in these difficult times, it will not be any different.
Here 10 out of 10.
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